Double Trouble in the neighbourhood.
The burning Political crisis in the two neighboring states of Maldives and Pakistan has created an unstable situation in the region. The MEA corridors are busy analyzing both the situation. It is believed that a political chaos in the Maldives, could open the way for a resurgent Islamist movement. Whereas in Pakistan, the tussle between the military, Judiciary & the Government could either bring in dictatorship or early elections.
After Gilani’s indictment by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, the country has been thrown in a highly chaotic & confusing situation. The present stand-off is a direct result of the divergence of views of the military and the civilian government on the memo issue. The Supreme Court appears to have thrown its weight behind the military. It wants corruption cases against hundreds of politicians, including the president, reopened. Despite the history of coups, another one is unlikely at the moment, as the military this time prefers to let the Supreme Court use "constitutional" methods to go after the government. The government's choices appear clear. If it allows itself to be booted out and its leaders thrown in jail, it will wash off the stigma of bad governance, corruption and economic mismanagement for which it has been criticised throughout its tenure. But if it survives the crisis, it will emerge as the first ever civilian government to have established the supremacy of parliament over other state institutions. This ominous turf war between the top state institutions is taking place at a time when numerous opposition groups are shuffling to gain a foothold in the run-up to general elections, due in early 2013 but likely to be held earlier. Among them is the cricketing legend Imran Khan and the former dictator Pervez Musharraf. With all this happening, Pakistan appears to be heading into a period of massive confusion which many believe could translate it either into a stronger parliamentary democracy or a total collapse of the system.
New Delhi has continuously turned a blind eye to a developing tsunami in the Maldives, the nation of islands. Ever since September 2007, when a bomb targeting Chinese, Japanese and British tourists went off in Malé's Sultan Park, security experts have feared a paradise for jihadists instead of tourists. Its 1,200-plus islands are near-impossible to police, which means terrorists could use them as bases to target India's western seaboard and even Europe. Hence within a day of Nasheed’s resignation, Indian Prime minister spoke to the new President Waheed and assured him of India's cooperation in all matters. As delegations from the U.S., the Commonwealth and the European Union set up camp in Male to figure a way out of the crisis, the world is looking towards India to lead. Will India grasp the immensely fragile moment at hand and ensure that peace and stability returns to the Maldives and that fresh elections are held, sooner than later? By doing so , it will be setting an example to the regime not only in Male and elsewhere in South Asia which is littered with authoritarian rulers.
